Politics: My Bosses, My Muse

Politics in the Philippines

The president floats the notion of a second term

In a body politic still scarred by the two-decade dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos, it has long been taboo for a president even to dream of more than one six-year term. Yet President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, son of Corazon Aquino, who toppled Marcos in 1986, has broken that taboo. On August 13th he said he was amenable to a second term. Mr Aquino’s pronouncement has thrown Philippine politics into a welter. Even members of his own coalition are asking what he is playing at.

The constitution forbids a president a second term. Until now Mr Aquino has opposed any change in the constitution established by his late mother. But Mr Aquino told a television interviewer that amendments might be desirable to curb the powers of the Supreme Court, with which he is quarrelling. Asked if he was open to amending the constitution to lift the presidential term limit, he said he would listen to his “bosses”—by which he means the people. He did not say what his bosses were telling him. Neither Mr Aquino nor his various spokesmen subsequently made his meaning any clearer.

Opinion polls indicate that the president remains popular. But his popularity has been declining as he enters the final two years of his term. His progress in keeping his election promises of reducing corruption and poverty is not all it could have been. The fear that any president might turn out to be another Marcos makes it highly improbable that the voters, who have the final say, will allow him another term.

Absent any delusions that his bosses regard him as indispensable, the most likely explanation for Mr Aquino’s pronouncement is that he hopes the prospect of his staying on will keep his governing coalition together. Their single term and their function as the fount of political patronage make all Philippine presidents lame ducks in their last two years. Supporters desert them for whoever may be the best bet to become the next president and the next source of patronage.

Opinion polls suggest that the man Mr Aquino hoped would succeed him, the interior secretary, Mar Roxas, has a formidable task in stopping the vice-president, Jejomar Binay, who is a member of the opposition, from winning the next presidential election. Politicians in the governing coalition can stick with Mr Roxas and lose influence, or they can switch allegiance to Mr Binay and keep it.

Floating the idea of amending the constitution may be a desperate attempt by Mr Aquino to hold the coalition together for a last-gasp effort to keep his election promises. That would burnish his family’s political reputation—even though his mother would certainly have disapproved of any constitutional amendment.